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Good morning, Early Birds. Sadly, a missed opportunity with this one-time <a href="https://www.theringer.com/tv/2023/8/17/23834446/hgtv-barbie-dreamhouse-challenge-renovation-project-neighborhood-nightmare">real-life Barbie Dreamhouse</a>. But has anyone built the Mojo Dojo Casa House? Tips: <a href="mailto:earlytips@washpost.com?utm_campaign=wp_power_up&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;wpisrc=nl_powerup">earlytips@washpost.com</a>. Was this forwarded to you? <a href="https://s2.washingtonpost.com/38f3bdc/63d263741b79c61f87661669/5969896e9bbc0f6d71c1f555/12/59/63d263741b79c61f87661669?utm_campaign=wp_power_up&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;wpisrc=nl_powerup">Sign up here</a>. Thanks for waking up with us.

Reading this online? <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/the-early-202/?itid=lk_inline_manual_4">Sign up for The Early 202 to get scoops and sharp political analysis in your inbox each morning</a>.

In today’s edition … What we’re watching: Camp David summit … American democracy is cracking. These forces help explain why. … but first …

Gen. Milley on if Ukraine can win: Define ‘win’

Photo illustration of Mark Milley in a blue and red speech bubble.

Gen. Mark A. Milley has just 42 days left in his tenure as the 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.&nbsp;

As as he nears the end of a long, illustrious and sometimes controversial career, we sat down with Milley on Wednesday in his Pentagon office at a round table adorned with challenge coins from around the world and four televisions tuned to four different news channels — Fox, CNN, MSNBC and the BBC.

We spoke about a wide range of topics, including Ukraine, the United States' withdrawal in Afghanistan, Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s blocking of military promotions and nominees and military recruitment challenges.&nbsp;

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.&nbsp;

Responding to some Republicans who have criticized the pace of providing weapons to Ukraine

“I’ve been a participant from the very beginning — even before the Russians invaded Ukraine — in the decision-making with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/candidates/joe-biden-2024/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">President Biden</a>, the National Security Council and [Defense] Secretary [Lloyd] Austin, etc. I’ve not seen any slow walking whatsoever. We have provided Ukraine lots of equipment, munitions, a huge amount of military assistance, and there’s also a lot of civilian assistance, money, etc. But military assistance, we provided Ukraine with enormous amount.&nbsp;

We've provided them with the right amount of equipment at the right time in order to achieve the objectives that they needed to achieve at the moment in time.”

On the counteroffensive against Russia in Ukraine&nbsp;

“The Russians are in pretty rough shape. So they’ve suffered huge amount of casualties. Their morale is not great. Their leadership is questionable and spotty, depends on what type of unit. The strategic level of leadership is clearly having a lot of friction. Logistics is not great. So, the Russians are, though, in the defense. So [Ukraine’s] fighting the fight. I had said a couple of months ago that this offensive was going to be long, it’s gonna be bloody, it’s going to be slow. And that’s exactly what it is: long, bloody and slow, and it's a very, very difficult fight.”

Our colleagues John Hudson and Alex Horton broke last night that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/">Ukraine will fail to reach a key offensive goal </a>of reaching the key southeastern city of Melitopol, according to people familiar with U.S. intelligence.&nbsp;

On if Ukraine can win&nbsp;

“That depends on what you mean by the word ‘win.’”&nbsp;

“For Ukraine, this is an existential fight. It’s a fight for survival. But for the rest of Europe and for the rest of the world, really, for the United States, it’s about those rules, to make sure those rules stay in place. What Putin has done is a frontal assault on those rules of the international order that have been in existence now for eight decades since the end of World War II.

If the end state is Ukraine is a free, independent sovereign country with its territory intact, that will take a considerable level of effort yet to come. And this is a long, very difficult, high casualty-producing war that’s ongoing. You can achieve those objectives through military means. That’s gonna take a long, long time, but you can also achieve those objectives maybe possibly, through some sort of diplomatic means.”&nbsp;

On if any backchannel diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine have begun

“I’m not going to comment on any future things or ongoing negotiations or any that kind of stuff. I would just say that there is various ways to accomplish those objectives. And I would say right now, it’s probably too early to tell this. This counteroffensive hasn't run its course yet. So we have to see where this thing ends up and then move from there.”

On the military holds by Tuberville (R-Ala.) in protest of DOD’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/abortion/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">abortion</a> policy

“I don’t want to enter into the whole discussion of abortion and the culture war. I’m staying out of all that.

So now you’re up to, probably, I don’t know somewhere between three [thousand] and 4,000 people, humans, children, spouses, the officers themselves that are being impacted by this in a negative way — increased uncertainty, can’t go to school, can’t change jobs, can’t get settled.&nbsp;

About a third of our assignments change pretty much every year. So you’re looking at about a third of the organizations in the U.S. military globally, are without predictable, consistent leadership. And the guy who’s in the job right now would either have to extend or defer retirement or defer the next assignment and there’s a real ripple effect to all of this. So there is a real readiness impact to all of this and that concerns me. And the sooner we can get to a resolution, I think the better.”&nbsp;

(Gen. Milley’s nominated replacement, Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., is one of the 301 military officials and flag officers being blocked by Tuberville. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has not yet committed the hours of floor time to confirm Brown as Tuberville’s holds pile up.)

On the four indictments of former president <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/donald-trump/" target="_blank" class="contextual_link">Donald Trump</a>, who appointed Milley to his position

“It would be entirely inappropriate for me as a commissioned officer, and more so as the chairman, to ever comment on a current or former president and especially with ongoing legal cases.”

On if “wokeness” is contributing to recruiting challenges as Republicans allege:&nbsp;

“There’s clearly a recruiting challenge ongoing and you saw numbers. And the Army is particularly challenged to meet its numbers.&nbsp;

So why is that? I think there’s a lot of reasons. There’s never a single causal factor. So anyone who out there is saying that this is the reason, I would challenge them on that.&nbsp;

First, I would start with covid. Kids in this country, essentially, didn’t go to school for two years and getting into high schools for our recruiters, to get into high schools, is one of the keys to recruiting, to meeting the numbers.

Second thing is … some of the data indicates that there’s a much greater spike in recruits failing the ASVAB test, which is the academic test to get into the military. Why is that? I don’t know. I’m not an academic. I’m not a teacher. But I suspect that there’s some contribution there — of not being in high school, and then missing two years of school and then failing ASVAB test. So that's a contributing factor.

I think another contributing factor is clearly this perception of quote, “wokeness,” and I personally think that it’s overstated. There are things that are done in the military that certainly, you know, raise that as an issue, but the actual facts suggests that it’s much less significant than perhaps the perception is.”

On, as he calls it, perceived “wokeness”&nbsp; “I’ll use drag queen shows as an example. That’s been out there. I don’t agree with drag queen shows being on military bases. I don’t think that’s appropriate. And neither does Secretary Austin. So Secretary Austin put a stop to it. How many times it happened? It happened a few. That’s true. Probably shouldn't happen. But it did. But to say that that is, you know, somehow the entire military went woke because a handful of drag queen shows that shouldn't happen to begin with, I think is an overstatement. &nbsp;

Same thing with critical race theory. So agree or disagree with critical race theory, it is not a theory that the Department of Defense or the military is embracing and shoving down people’s throats.”&nbsp;

On if he supports investigations including those by House Republicans into the Afghanistan withdrawal, which was completed two years ago this month

“Of course. I think any time that you can shed light and truth, determine lessons learned, I think that’s a valuable exercise.

These are early on, these are immediate, these are after-action reviews that give us some insights into some of the lessons learned. And I would say that you’re probably not going to get a holistic, balanced picture by professional historians for years to come. Because if you look at past wars, that’s how long it usually takes — at least a decade or more — to get the fulsome picture. But Congress doing one? Of course.”

For our soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, CIA officers, Department of State officers — anyone who served in Afghanistan over twenty plus years — the cost in blood was high, but every single one of us who served in Afghanistan should hold their heads high. &nbsp;They served with skill, dedication and honor. &nbsp;For two decades our nation was not attacked from Afghanistan — that was our mission, and each one can be rightly proud of their service.”

On what he’d say to the 13 Abbey Gate families who are testifying before Congress next month

“We owe those Gold Star families everything. We owe them transparency, we owe them honesty, we owe them accountability if appropriate. We owe them the truth about what happened to their loved ones. The United States Marine Corps went out and briefed 13 of those or 11 of those families, the Army briefed one and the Navy briefed one. And there was a large investigation done.&nbsp;

I wasn’t at those briefings, but I trust the Marine Corps did the best they could — have given every piece of information that they could. If there was issues with that, we need to take whatever corrective action is necessary.&nbsp;

And and our hearts go out to those families. This is a personal thing for all of us in uniform. We don't like what happened in Afghanistan. We don't like the outcome of Afghanistan. I got that. But we owe it to the families to take care of them. Their sacrifice cannot be in vain.”

Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly quoted Milley as saying: “What Putin has done is a frontal assault on those rules of the international order that have been in existence now for a decade since the end of World War II.” He said: “What Putin has done is a frontal assault on those rules of the international order that have been in existence now for eight decades since the end of World War II.” This version has been updated.

President Biden’s historic Camp David summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not only be a test of his promise to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/17/biden-japan-south-korea-camp-david/?utm_campaign=wp_power_up&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;wpisrc=nl_powerup">counter rising threats from China, North Korea and Russia</a>, but also of his ability to convince his allies in Asia that his economy-focused reelection pitch — “Bidenomics” — does not come at their expense.

Here’s what else to expect at today’s Camp David summit where “economic issues have emerged as a key area of potential promise and peril for the president,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/17/us-japan-south-korea-economy-summit/">per our colleague Toluse Olorunnipa</a>:

Today’s hot topic: “A range of U.S. policies enacted a year ago — including tax credits for American-built electric vehicles, export controls targeting China and subsidies for U.S.-based semiconductor plants — have become critical tension points in the trilateral relationship … The escalating U.S.-China economic conflict has not been without cost for South Korea and Japan, whose companies rely heavily on Chinese workers and consumers.”

Some deliverables: “Experts do not expect many major announcements on economic issues during the summit, but one of the deliverables administration officials have outlined involves the development of a supply chain ‘early warning’ coordination system in which the countries will share information about disruptions to help head off shortages like those seen during the coronavirus pandemic,” Tolu reports.

American democracy is cracking. These forces help explain why.

Matt McClain

In the first part of The Washington Post’s new series about American democracy, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/18/american-democracy-political-system-failures/">our colleagues Dan Balz and Clara Ence Morse examine</a> the growing fissures in the centuries-old political system and the forces behind them, writing that “the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2021/jan-6-insurrection-capitol/?itid=lk_inline_manual_8&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_4">Jan. 6, 2021, attack</a> on the Capitol is an extreme emblem of what happens when democracy stops functioning as it should.” Here’s an excerpt:&nbsp;

“a country where the search for common ground is increasingly elusive, many Americans can agree on this: They believe the political system is broken and that it fails to represent them.,” Dan and Clara write. “They aren’t wrong.”

“The failure has multiple origins, including a collapse of trust in institutions. But one of the most significant is a collision between forces both old and new,” they write.

“The old dates to the writing of the Constitution — debates and compromises that resulted in representation in the House based on population and in the Senate based on equal standing for the states; the odd system by which we elect presidents; and lifetime appointments for Supreme Court justices. In general, the founders often distrusted the masses and sought to create structural protections against them.”

“The newer element, which has gathered strength in recent decades, is the deepening polarization of the political system. Various factors have caused this: shifts within the two parties that have enlarged the ideological gap between them; geographic sorting that has widened the differences between red and blue states; a growing urban-rural divide; and greater hostility among individuals toward political opponents.”

“The result is that today, a minority of the population can exercise outsize influence on policies and leadership, leading many Americans increasingly to feel that the government is a captive of minority rule.”

<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/old-dollar-bills-cash-federal-reserve/?itid=lk_inline_manual_84">The high-tech, super-secure government warehouse where old cash dies</a>. By Rachel Siegel, Joy Sharon Yi, Hannah Yoon and Emily Wright.

<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/08/17/trial-date-trump-jan-6-proposal/?itid=lk_inline_manual_85">Trump asks to push Jan. 6 trial beyond 2024 election — to April 2026</a>. By Spencer S. Hsu.

<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/08/18/maui-fires-hawaiian-history-cultural-artifacts/?itid=lk_inline_manual_86">Maui fires destroyed a cultural center of Native Hawaiian history</a>. By Reis Thebault.

From across the web:&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mauis-top-emergency-official-sound-sirens-fires-approached-rcna100538">Maui’s top emergency official is out after failing to sound sirens as fires approached</a>. By NBC News’s Tim Stelloh and David Douglas.

<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/vivek-ramaswamy-desantis-documents.html">Ramaswamy’s faith singled out in DeSantis super PAC memo</a>. By the New York Times’s Jonathan Swan, Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman.

Hello, darkness, my old friend 😢

Thanks for reading. You can also follow us on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC">@LACaldwellDC</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/theodoricmeyer">@theodoricmeyer</a>.

Joan Shorenstein Barone Award for Excellence in Congressional Reporting in 2018

Radio Television Digital News First Amendment Clarity Award in 2019

New York Press Club Award for feature writing on Donald Trump in 2016

North Carolina State University, BA in Communications

Leigh Ann Caldwell is co-author of The Washington Post’s Early 202 and focuses on Congress and politics. She is also an anchor for Washington Post Live, conducting high-impact newsmaking interviews. Before joining The Post in 2022, Caldwell was a correspondent at NBC News, most recently as a member of its congressional unit. 

Leigh Ann Caldwell

Deadline Club Award for Newspaper or Digital Local News Reporting, 2014

McGill University

Columbia University

Theodoric Meyer is a national political reporter for The Washington Post and a co-author of the Early 202 newsletter.

Theodoric Meyer

Rutgers University, BA in Biological Sciences

American University, MA in Journalism and Public Affairs

Tobi Raji covers the federal judiciary and the Supreme Court as a part of The Washington Post's Opportunity Program. She was previously a researcher for The Early 202, a pre-dawn newsletter about the nation’s major power centers, including the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court. She joined The Post in 2021.

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